Global crisis and national policy responses: together alone?

JEL codes:

Optimal Currency Diversification for a Class of Risk Averse International Investors

In the framework of continuous-time finance theory, this paper derives the optimal consumption and portfolio rules for an international investor with constant expenditure shares [alpha, sub j] and constant relative risk aversion [1-gamma] in a dynamic context. The index of value obtained from the consumption rule is used to obtain real returns on N different currencies in terms of their purchasing power over N goods. The portfolio rule is expressed in terms of the determinants of the purchasing powers, namely exchange rates and prices expressed in the numeraire currency. The optimal portfolio is interpreted as a capital position given by the expenditure shares and hedging zero net-worth portfolios depending on unanticipated inflation and risk aversion. It is shown that the minimum variance portfolio is independent of returns, but depends on expenditure patterns. While the speculative portfolio depends on risk aversion and real return differentials. When the effect of references on real return differentials is made explicit, it is shown that the minimum variance portfolio is affected by risk aversion. In that case, the effect of an increase in [alpha, sub i] on the portfolio proportions [x, sub i] will be positive when relative risk aversion is greater than one, as generally presumed. Actual data from eight major countries is used to compute optimal portfolios based on real return differentials for different weighting schemes, degrees of risk aversion and sample periods when exchange rates and prices are assumed to be Brownian.

Currency Diversification and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the "Egyptian Disease"

The paper presents a dynamic portfolio model under currency inconvertibility which rationalizes the recent Egyptian experience of real exchange rate appreciation and currency diversification following the increase in oil exports and the partial financial liberalization that took place after 1976. The two shocks are linked because the relative price of manufacturing exports in terms of oil is also the premium of the black market rate over the official exchange rate. The effects of various official exchange rate policies on the temporary equilibrium values of the premium and the real wage and on the steady-state values of asset stocks are examined. A review of the Egyptian experience shows that as the model suggests the official devaluation of 1979 was ineffective against the "Egyptian disease" so that little can be expected from the 1981 devaluation. In light of the model results, a crawling peg policy is proposed instead.

Competitiveness and convergence in Portugal

The complementary package of macroeconomic and structural policies associated with Portugal joining the European Monetary System in 1992 failed because budgetary control was inconsistent with the new currency regime. In its three sections, this paper focuses on the consequences for growth of this enduring policy failure. Its two main reasons were excessive primary expenditure and state-led wage inflation. Reform procrastination and the reversion of a purely demand-led boom is the main lesson from Portugal on what can be called competitiveness for convergence. Reforms are more likely to fall prey to the second-best argument under ready-made policy packages with scant knowledge about local conditions. A more systemic approach to national economies will include the concept of complementarity as an input into economic advice, as shown in connection with transition by Macedo and Martins (forthcoming).

Macroeconomic Policy Under Currency Inconvertibility

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of currency inconvertibility, building on the role of relative prices in a portfolio balance model. The relationship between black markets for foreign exchange and smuggling is first analyzed from the perspective of an individual importer. According to the portfolio view, the black market rate behaves like the financial rate in a dual market. The premium of the black marlet rate over the official rate is thus related to the probability of success in smuggling and the tariff. Then the black market is analyzed using a simple three-good,two-asset general equilibrium model. Under the assumption of regressive exchange rate expectations, the portfolio view is contrasted with a monetary approach to the black market. The short-run and long-run effects of monetary and exchange rate policies on relative prices are assessed. Different assumptions about expected returns are contrasted, but emphasis is placed on the perfect foresight case. Unless expectations are static, official exchange rate policy has to adjust to the private valuation of foreign exchange, as stressed in the conclusion.